Zeps, Dainis Aļaska 2025. gada 15. augusts. Vai mežonis brutalitātē pārspēs mežoni? [Preprint] (Submitted)
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Abstract
The conversation explores the geopolitical, strategic, and game-theoretical dimensions of a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on August 15, 2025, in Alaska, where a “peace plan” for the war in Ukraine might be discussed. Central to the discussion is the concept of recognizing Russia’s control over occupied Ukrainian territories de facto (without legal recognition) and the idea of “land swaps.” The exchange draws on historical evidence of Russia’s consistent violation of agreements (e.g., the Minsk accords) and argues that any ceasefire along Ukraine’s extended and complex front line would be technically unworkable and politically meaningless.
From a game-theory perspective, the conversation frames Putin as a “cheater” with no reputational cost for breaking agreements, contrasted with Trump’s transactional “deal-making” mindset, which assumes mutual goodwill that does not exist. This asymmetry, combined with the speed of Russian decision-making versus the constraints on U.S. actions, leads to the conclusion that any such deal would favor Russia.
The discussion incorporates the roles and motivations of key players — Russia, the U.S. under Trump, Ukraine, the EU/NATO, and China — highlighting China’s pragmatic interest in global stability and potential to act as a brake on Russian adventurism. It also assesses the security implications for the Baltic states and Europe in the event of a weakened NATO, stressing the likelihood that Ukraine will continue fighting regardless of U.S. support, given the existential nature of the conflict.
The dialogue integrates analytical input from an external AI (DeepSeek), creating a multi-perspective assessment and laying the groundwork for a structured “players and motivations” map as the first step toward scenario planning.
Video created from this article using NoteBookLM and ClipChamp.com:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZuva9B0oBg
| Item Type: | Preprint |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | Video created from this article using NoteBookLM and ClipChamp.com: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZuva9B0oBg |
| Subjects: | C Auxiliary Sciences of History > CB History of civilization H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) H Social Sciences > HM Sociology J Political Science > JA Political science (General) J Political Science > JX International law |
| Divisions: | University of Latvia > SR Science and Religion Dialogue. Interdisciplinary Group |
| References: | Zeps, Dainis (2023) GPT no iekšpuses: ko var iesākt ar GPT? Matemātiķa skatījums. Mans skatījums. In: ZuRD seminārs, 2023. 26. marts, zoom, https://scireprints.lu.lv/503/
Zeps, Dainis (2023) GPT no iekšpuses: ko var iesākt ar GPT? Matemātiķa skatījums. Mans skatījums. In: ZuRD seminārs, 2023. 26. marts, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pk1dkSE-AQE Zeps, Dainis (2023) ΓΝΩΘΙ ΜΑΘΗΜΑ (GNŌTHI MATHĒMA) Or What are the foundations of our thinking? In: Seminar of the Science and Religion Dialogue Group (ZuRD), 24 May 2023., Zoom, https://scireprints.lu.lv/504/ Zeps, Dainis (2024) Krievijas Ukrainas karš: saruna ar gpt4o, https://scireprints.lu.lv/523/ Zeps, Dainis On how to develop a Peace conference space in LLM environment, https://scireprints.lu.lv/545/ Zeps, Dainis (2024) Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine: a conversation with gpt.4o and its analysis. In: Zinātnes un Reliģijas dialoga grupas seminārs, 27 November 2024., Zoom, https://scireprints.lu.lv/525/ Zeps, Dainis What can make the US stop supporting Russia from its collapse? https://scireprints.lu.lv/546/ Zeps, Dainis What can save NATO? Stand for Ukraine! https://scireprints.lu.lv/548/ Zeps, Dainis Planetārā izglītība: sarunas ar LLM mašīnām par aktuālām starptautiskām tēmām, https://scireprints.lu.lv/543/ Zeps, Dainis (2024) Vai būt blēdim ir izdevīgi? Ko saka Mākslīgais internets, AI?, https://scireprints.lu.lv/520/ Burgert A Senekal, Die neerslag van Russiese propaganda in kommentare op Maroela Media se nuusberigte oor die oorlog in Oekraïne, (Traces of Russian propaganda narratives in comments on Maroela Media’s news reports about the war in Ukraine) https://doi.org/10.56273/1995-5928/2023/j20n2b2 , 2023-05-31 Burgert Adriaan Senekal, ChatGPT as a Source of Information about Russian Military Involvement in Ukraine (2014–Present), University of the Free State, South Africa, https://doi.org/10.1080/02500167.2024.2405018 , Burgert Senekal, A bibliography of Russian disinformation operations, https://zenodo.org/records/14824172 , 2025 Burgert Senekal, Querying Google NoteBookLM on North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) options to resolve the New Cold War: A preliminary study, Peace Conference Project Journal, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14793148 , 2025 Jeremy Seekings, Chris Saunders, The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Future of Democracy in South Africa, https://upjournals.up.ac.za/index.php/strategic_review/article/view/4261/3766 , 2022 Peace Conference Project Journal, https://zenodo.org/communities/pcp-journal/records?q=&l=list&p=1&s=10&sort=newest Senekal, Burgert (2025) Russian disinformation, Large Language Models (LLMs) and the War in Ukraine: A South African perspective. In: Science and Religion Dialogue, Seminar, 26th February, 2025, zoom meeting, https://scireprints.lu.lv/547/, https://zen Senekal, Burgert and Zeps, Dainis May AI Machines End the War? A Peace Conference Project , https://scireprints.lu.lv/541/ Senekal, Burgert and Zeps, Dainis May AI Machines End the War? An Invitation to the Peace Conference Project, https://scireprints.lu.lv/540/ Zeps, Dainis, Russia delenda est: how we understand this, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.22.pdf Zeps, Dainis, The New World, or The world after Ukraine's victory, https://hal.science/hal-04839439/, 2024 Zeps, Dainis, Multilingual conversation about war in Ukraine, https://hal.science/hal-04854973/ Zeps, Dainis, Kā palīdzēt Ukrainai uzvarēt? Kas mums ir jādara Ukrainas atbalstam? Jauna saruna ar MI, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.25.pdf, 2025 Zeps, Dainis, The war in Ukraine. New conversation with grok3, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.41.pdf, 2025 Zeps, Dainis, Ukrainas uzvara pār agresoru un teroristisko Krieviju kā vienīgais ceļš uz stabilu mieru Ukrainā, http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.23258.45764 , 2025 Zeps, Dainis, Otrā saruna ar ChatGPT par karu Ukrainā, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.17.pdf, 2024 Zeps, Dainis, Russia delenda est, or Demilitarisation, Depropagandisation, Deescalisation: how we see this? https://www.researchgate.net/publication/387527944 Zeps, Dainis, Karš Ukrainā pret agresoru Krieviju. Saruna ar LLM Grok3, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.42.pdf , 2025 Zeps, Dainis, Vai ASV zaudēs Krievijas glābšanas avantūrā Ukrainas karā? Saruna ar LLM Grok3, https://zenodo.org/records/14949820, 2025 Zeps, Dainis, What can make the US stop supporting Russia from its collapse? Conversation with LLM Grok3. https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.44.pdf, 2025 Zeps, Dainis, Par eskalāciju uz WWIII, kas to dara? Saruna ar ChatGPT, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.45.pdf, 2025 Zeps, Dainis, The Escalation Toward WWIII: Who is Driving It? A Conversation with ChatGPT, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.46.pdf, 2025 Zeps, Dainis, Trampa atrašanās prezidenta amatā ir pretrunā ar “lojalitātes” ideju, saka Grok3, https://lingua.id.lv/art/war.47.pdf , 2025 Zeps Dainis, The Rebirth of Kievan Rus': The Future of the Russia-Ukraine War: Kievan Rus' as the Transformation of Russia’s Legacy (Kijevskajas Rusas atdzimšana: Krievijas-Ukrainas kara nākotne), https://zenodo.org/records/15873145 Zeps Dainis, Framework for Reviving Filip Orlik's 1710 Constitution as a Governance Model for a Post-Russia Kievan Rus', https://zenodo.org/records/16484131 |
| ID Code: | 555 |
| Deposited By: | Dainis Zeps |
| Deposited On: | 15 Aug 2025 09:08 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Aug 2025 09:12 |
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